Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Georgia
  • Israel
  • Jordan
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Kuwait
  • Bahrain
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Qatar
  • Maldives
  • Nepal

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,108,269$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52,196$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{169,463.1}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 365.7)}}\) (asimptote \(169,463.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $243,803$ on 2020-12-13

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $189,726$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,790$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,753$ on 2020-12-13

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $357,176$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{369,079.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 197.4)}}\) (asimptote \(369,079.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,999$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,845.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,845.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,991$ on 2020-12-13

Jordan⮸

Population $10,203,134$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $259,614$ on 2020-12-13

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,365$ on 2020-12-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,782$ on 2020-12-13

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $574,634$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{605,661.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 194.3)}}\) (asimptote \(605,661.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,579$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,441.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 168.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,441.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,609$ on 2020-12-13

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $126,240$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,353.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 144.3)}}\) (asimptote \(117,353.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,471$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,583.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 166.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,583.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,721$ on 2020-12-13

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $146,218$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{152,633.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 174.8)}}\) (asimptote \(152,633.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $911$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{968.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 135.0)}}\) (asimptote \(968.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,213$ on 2020-12-13

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,143$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,553.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 171.2)}}\) (asimptote \(92,553.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $348$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{370.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 163.3)}}\) (asimptote \(370.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,613$ on 2020-12-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Saudi Arabia recovered 95%
Qatar recovered 94%
Kuwait recovered 80%
Maldives recovered 78%
Nepal recovered 76%
Tajikistan recovered 75%
Jordan recovered 72%
India recovered 65%
Taiwan* recovered 61%
Bangladesh recovered 46%
Iraq recovered 14%
Iran recovered 6%

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $359,888$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{347,069.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 108.2)}}\) (asimptote \(347,069.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,048$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,927.8}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 132.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,927.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,291$ on 2020-12-13

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $140,961$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,756.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 100.6)}}\) (asimptote \(128,756.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $240$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 97.6)}}\) (asimptote \(227.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,231$ on 2020-12-13

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,368$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,629.7}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 170.1)}}\) (asimptote \(13,629.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 118.5)}}\) (asimptote \(48.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $614$ on 2020-12-13

Nepal⮸

Population $29,136,808$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $248,423$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{305,966.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 193.0)}}\) (asimptote \(305,966.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,698$ on 2020-12-13

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,273.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 173.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,273.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,994$ on 2020-12-13